Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Kapal di Pelabuhan Balikpapan dengan SARIMA
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https://doi.org/10.32665/statkom.v2i2.2303Keywords:
Jumlah Penumpang Kapal, Peramalan, RMSE, SARIMAAbstract
Latar Belakang: Peramalan jumlah kedatangan penumpang kapal dalam negeri di pelabuhan dalam negeri sangat penting untuk antisipasi lonjakan penumpang.
Tujuan: Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah mendapatkan model terbaik untuk peramalan jumlah kedatangan penumpang kapal.
Metode: Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Data jumlah kedatangan penumpang kapal dalam negeri di Pelabuhan Balikpapan dari Januari 2017 sampai dengan Desember 2021. Root mean absolute error (RMSE) digunakan untuk membandingkan akurasi peramalan.
Hasil: Model SARIMA yang dihasilkan untuk jumlah kedatangan penumpang kapal dalam negeri di Pelabuhan Balikpapan yaitu SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 dan SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,0,1)12 dengan RMSE masing-masing sebesar 9442.62 dan 9608.54.
Kesimpulan: Model terbaik untuk peramalan jumlah kedatangan penumpang kapal di Pelabuhan Balikpapan adalah SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12.
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Abstract View: 536,
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