Peramalan Harga Beras Mingguan di Kalimantan Timur Menggunakan Metode Singular Spectrum Analysis

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Authors

  • Deswita Istiyanti Universitas Mulawarman
  • Erlyne Nadhilah Widyaningrum Mulawarman University https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4940-569X
  • Mitha Rabiyatul Nufus Politeknik Pertanian Negeri Kupang
  • Chandrawati Chandrawati Universitas Hamzanwadi

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32665/statkom.v4i2.5662

Keywords:

Singular Spectrum Analysis, Forecasting, Rice Price, MAPE

Abstract

Background: Rice plays a central role in Indonesia's food security and inflation dynamics, making accurate price forecasts crucial for effective planning policies. In East Kalimantan, weekly rice prices represent a significant risk factor that needs to be closely monitored to anticipate potential risks to household welfare and regional inflation.

Objective: To predict rice prices in East Kalimantan over the next eight periods using the SSA method.

Methods: Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to predict weekly rice prices. The SSA procedure includes embedding (window length L = 48), singular value decomposition, eigentriple clustering (trend: 1–2; seasonality: 3–35; disturbance: 36–48), diagonal averaging, and R-forecasting using the Linear Recursive Formula (LRF).

Results: MAPE of 0.084% (in-sample) and 3.299% (out-sample). Estimates indicate that rice prices will remain in the range of IDR 15,500–16,500/kg during August–October 2025.

Conclusion: The SSA is effective in capturing basic price components and producing reliable forecasts to support food reserve maintenance, distribution strategies, and inflation risk mitigation.

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Published

2025-12-31

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Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Statistika dan Komputasi

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Copyright (c) 2025 Deswita Istiyanti, Erlyne Nadhilah Widyaningrum, Mitha Rabiyatul Nufus, Chandrawati Chandrawati

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